U.S. High-Impact Economic Calendar
This calendar tracks the following high-impact US economic releases that typically move markets: CPI (Consumer Price Index), Producer Price Index (PPI), Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, FOMC Rate Decisions, Federal Funds Rate, GDP, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Services PMI. Dates, times, and values are sourced live from the biquote.io API. Instead of showing forecast figures, which are often inaccurate on this data feed, each event shows the previous release value for context. Actual values, once officially released, are generally reliable. The countdown next to each event updates in real time and shows exactly how long until the scheduled release.
Previous = the value from the last time this indicator was released. Actual = the value officially reported on the release date, shown once the data is out.
How U.S. Economic Data Impacts the Stock Market
The 12 indicators below are ranked based on their potential to move the S&P 500 (SPX), the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq (QQQ) on the day of release. Rank 1 represents the highest market-moving potential, and rank 12 represents the lowest. A number that surprises relative to forecast moves markets more than one that lands in line with expectations.
Eight times a year, the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise, cut, or hold interest rates. This is the single biggest market event on the calendar.
Stocks rise when the Fed cuts rates or signals future cuts.
Stocks fall when the Fed raises rates or sounds more hawkish than expected.
Typical move: 0.8 to 1.5% on SPX, often more on QQQ.
Measures how much everyday prices like groceries, rent, and fuel have changed over the past year. The most watched inflation report.
Stocks rise when CPI comes in lower than expected, raising hopes for rate cuts.
Stocks fall when CPI is hotter than expected, signalling the Fed will keep rates high longer.
Typical move: 0.6 to 1.2% on SPX.
Released the first Friday of every month, it shows how many jobs the U.S. economy added or lost. Too many jobs can fuel inflation and delay rate cuts.
Stocks rise on a moderate beat, or when weak data raises rate cut odds.
Stocks fall when job growth is far stronger than expected alongside rising wages.
Typical move: 0.5 to 1.0% on SPX.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The core version, which strips out food and energy, is what the Fed watches most closely when setting rates.
Stocks rise when core PCE cools or beats expectations to the downside.
Stocks fall when PCE is hotter than expected, suggesting rate cuts will be delayed.
Typical move: 0.4 to 0.8% on SPX.
Measures price changes at the wholesale level, specifically what businesses pay before passing costs on to consumers. Often an early signal for where CPI is headed.
Stocks rise when PPI is lower than expected, hinting inflation may keep cooling.
Stocks fall when PPI is hot, especially if it suggests upcoming CPI prints will also rise.
Typical move: 0.3 to 0.6% on SPX.
Measures the total value of everything produced in the U.S. over a quarter. Strong GDP supports earnings; weak GDP raises recession fears.
Stocks rise on solid growth that is not hot enough to worry the Fed.
Stocks fall on a surprising miss due to recession fears, or a blowout if it delays rate cuts.
Typical move: 0.3 to 0.7% on SPX.
Tracks consumer spending at shops, online, and restaurants. Since consumer spending is about 70% of U.S. GDP, this is a direct read on economic health.
Stocks rise on solid sales, showing consumers are still spending confidently.
Stocks fall on a big miss pointing to a slowdown, or a very hot print raising inflation concerns.
Typical move: 0.3 to 0.5% on SPX.
The interest rate the Fed sets for overnight bank lending, which flows through to mortgages, credit cards, and business loans. Set at each FOMC meeting, not a separate release.
Stocks rise when the rate is cut or expected to fall, boosting investment and risk appetite.
Stocks fall when the rate stays high or rises. Growth stocks and QQQ are hit hardest.
No isolated move. See FOMC Decision above.
Released alongside NFP, it shows the percentage of people actively looking for work but unable to find it. Usually secondary to payrolls on the day.
Stocks can rise when unemployment ticks up slightly, raising rate cut odds.
Stocks can fall when unemployment spikes sharply, triggering recession fears.
Typical move: secondary to NFP on release day.
Monthly survey of service-sector businesses. Above 50 means expansion, below 50 means contraction. Services make up roughly 80% of the U.S. economy.
Stocks rise when the reading beats 50 and surprises to the upside.
Stocks fall on a sharp miss below 50, signalling the largest part of the economy is contracting.
Typical move: 0.3 to 0.6% on SPX.
Same structure as ISM Services but focused on factories. Also includes a Prices Paid sub-index that can signal early inflation pressure.
Stocks, especially industrials and the Dow, rise when manufacturing beats 50 and surprises to the upside.
Stocks fall on a weak reading, particularly if it confirms a trend of contraction.
Typical move: 0.3 to 0.6% on SPX.
Every Thursday, this shows how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time that week. One bad week is usually noise; a rising trend over several weeks starts to matter.
Stocks can tick up when claims rise slightly, as it increases rate cut odds.
Stocks can dip when claims spike over multiple weeks, signalling rising layoffs.
Typical move: 0.1 to 0.3% on SPX.
Ranks reflect typical same-day index impact, not economic importance. Market reactions often reverse within hours, especially around FOMC press conferences. The percentage moves listed are historical benchmarks meant to serve as baseline estimates; they should not be treated as absolute rules. Actual volatility depends heavily on how far the data deviates from Wall Street expectations and whether the current market regime is more sensitive to inflation or growth.
Further reading
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